If you know four women, then statistically, one of them has had an abortion. The current Supreme Court recently overturned the opinion of a previous Supreme Court and now permits states (or the U.S. Congress) to make abortion illegal. By applying the “5 Whys” approach to abortion, we can learn the root causes of abortion and how to reduce the number of abortions without criminalizing abortion. We can also uncover the hidden costs of abortion bans.
The five Whys
The 5 Whys originated in the early 1900’s in Japan as a method to improve textile production. What does 100-year-old Japanese loom manufacturing have to do with abortion? As it turns out, a lot. Sakichi Toyoda was a Japanese industrialist who invented an automatic power loom that at the time was the most advanced weaving device in the world. He went on to found Toyota Industries, the manufacturer of Toyota automobiles. To address quality issues in manufacturing, he created the “Five Whys” approach. This utilized asking a series of five “Why” questions to determine the cause-and-effect relationship with any manufacturing process. This approach has been incorporated in Kaizen, lean manufacturing, and Six Sigma. It is also a key component of root-cause analysis that we use in hospital quality improvement today.
An example of the Five Whys is as follows: A hospital medical director learns from the infection control department that there have been a cluster of Clostridium difficile infections in certain rooms in the intensive care unit. To understand the root cause, the medical director asks a series of Why questions:
So, the solution to the hospital’s C. difficile problem was not to close ICU rooms or fire the housekeeping employee. The solution was for the purchasing department to buy the correct spray dispensers used with hypochlorite disinfectants. If all 5 of the “Why” questions had not been asked, the root cause would never have been determined and the C. difficile outbreak would not have been eliminated.
Asking 5 Whys can sometimes be overly simplistic. In the C. difficile example, there is one root cause identified at the fifth Why. Sometimes the root cause can be found at the second Why. Sometimes it takes 6 Whys. And sometimes, there are multiple root causes that can be identified at several levels of the Whys. The point is that it is necessary to continue to ask “Why” until the root causes are all identified.
Our country has taken a superficial approach to the issue of abortion. We have let our emotions stop at the first “Why” and have not done an adequate root-cause analysis of abortion. In half of our nation’s states, politicians have determined that many women are getting abortions and asked the first Why. The answer that they found is that there are doctors willing to perform abortions. Their solution has been to criminalize abortion. The problem is that they have not asked the other “Whys”. With abortion, the root causes are complex and can be found at each level of Whys.
The demographics of abortion in the U.S.
Before we can apply the 5 Whys to the issue of abortion, we first must examine the demographics of abortion. The World Health Organization reports that worldwide, about 73 million abortions are performed each year. This equates to 29% of all pregnancies ending in abortion. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control reports that there were 629,898 abortions performed in 2019 (the latest year data is available). The Guttmacher Institute (which uses a more thorough accounting method) reports that there were 930,160 abortions performed in 2020. This works out to 1 out of 5 pregnancies in the United States ending in an induced abortion. The U.S. accounts for about 1.3% of abortions worldwide. Additional epidemiological facts include:
- 24% of women under age 45 years old have had an abortion.
- The most common reason for having an abortion is not being ready to have a child (25%), followed by unable to afford a child (23%), done having children (19%), not wanting to be a single mother (8%), not mature enough to raise a child (7%), interference with education or career (4%), maternal health problems (4%), fetal abnormalities (3%), and rape (< 0.5%).
- Most women undergoing abortion are in their twenties: 34% of abortions are in women age 20-24 and 27% of abortions are in women age 25-29.
- 12% of abortions are performed in teenagers with 3.2% under age 18.
- Black and Hispanic women have disproportionately more abortions than White women. Black women account for 28% of abortions but Blacks make up 13% of the U.S. population. Hispanic women account for 25% of abortions but Hispanics make up 19% of the population. White women account for 39% of abortions but Whites make up 76% of the population.
- 38% of women undergoing abortion reported no religious affiliation; 24% are Catholic; 17% are mainline Protestant; and 13% are evangelical Protestant.
- 86% of women undergoing abortion are unmarried and 60% already have at least one child.
- 75% of women undergoing abortion are low income: 49% live below the Federal poverty level and an additional 26% are at 100% – 199% of the Federal poverty level.
- 53% of women paid for their abortion out-of-pocket. The average cost of a surgical abortion is $508 and of a medication-induced abortion is $535.
- 51% of women were using birth control in the month that they became pregnant: 24% were using condoms and 13% were using oral contraceptive pills.
- 88% of abortions occur in the first 3 months of pregnancy and 67% occur in the first 2 months of pregnancy.
- 54% of abortions are currently performed by medication (mifepristone and misoprostol).
- The largest number of abortions were performed in Texas, California, New York and California, however, these are also the states with the highest populations.
- The states with the highest rates of abortion per 100,000 population are New York, New Jersey, and Maryland.
The demographics of women who undergo abortion is remarkably similar to the demographics of infant mortality. The United States has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world – we rank 33rd out of 36 OECD countries with only Chile, Turkey, and Mexico having higher infant mortality rates. In states where women no longer have access to abortion, it follows that infant mortality rates will rise. Many of the states poised to criminalize abortion (with either outright bans or 6-week laws) already have very high infant mortality rates:
Applying the 5 Whys to abortion
Once we understand the demographics of abortion in the United States, we can apply the 5 Whys:
- Why are there abortions in the U.S.?
- Answer: because doctors performed abortions.
- Why are doctors performing abortions?
- Answer: because a lot of women requested them due to unwanted pregnancies.
- Why did women have unwanted pregnancies?
- Answer: because effective birth control was not used.
- Why wasn’t effective birth control used?
- Answer: most commonly because effective birth control methods were too costly and there were cultural barriers to their use.
- Why were there cultural barriers to birth control?
- Answer: because men and women were not adequately educated about birth control before they had sex.
If we stop after the first why, then the solution to humans having so many abortions is to make abortion illegal and prosecute doctors who perform abortion. But this will ultimately fail. History has showed us that in the past, when abortion was illegal, women still found ways to have abortions, in other words, making it illegal will not make abortions go away. This is especially true today since prior to 10 weeks gestation, a 2-pill form of abortion is safe and effective (mifepristone and misoprostol). Currently, these drugs are approved by the FDA, are readily available, and account for the majority of abortions in the U.S. Even if a future conservative U.S. Congress bans their use, these drugs will continue to be available as street drugs and from international sources – if the war on drugs cannot prevent a marijuana joint from being smuggled into the country for street sale, how can one expect the government to prevent 2 small pills from being smuggled in?
If we stop with the second why, then the solution is to prevent women from having intercourse. There are 3 main instincts that a species must have to keep from becoming extinct: (1) an instinct to eat, (2) an instinct to keep from being eaten, and (3) an instinct to procreate. To stop Homo sapiens from having sex is to somehow overcome one of the most powerful instincts that our species has had for the past 300,000 years and led to us being the dominant species on the planet. It just won’t work. We can pass laws and we can invoke religious decrees but neither is more powerful than instincts embedded in our genes.
At the third why, we find that about half of abortions were in pregnancies where no birth control method was used. In another 37%, inferior birth control methods were used (condoms and birth control pills). Condoms are notoriously unreliable and it is way too difficult for any person to remember to take a birth control pill every single morning for years at a time. IUDs are far more reliable but not all women can tolerate them. Vasectomies are even more effective but that would require men to take more responsibility than many of them want to – I’ve fought an uphill (and usually unsuccessful) battle with many husbands of my patients for who I prescribed teratogenic medications for their advanced lung disease and in who an unwanted pregnancy would likely result in the wife’s death or in severe fetal deformity. However, I suspect that if men had to choose for themselves between the discomfort of a vasectomy versus the discomfort of pregnancy, labor, and delivery, 100% of them would take the vasectomy.
At the fourth why, we find barriers to the use of birth control in the way of cost and cultural discouragement. The cost of contraception is directly proportional to the effectiveness of contraception. Calendar watching is free but is miserably ineffective. Condoms cost about a dollar each but are not much more effective. Nor are diaphragms which are about $25 each. Birth control pills cost about $180 per year and an IUD costs about $800 (but IUDs can last 12 years resulting in a depreciated cost of $65 per year). A hormonal implant costs about $1,000 and lasts for 3 years. A vasectomy costs about $1,000 and a tubal ligation costs about $6,000 with both giving a lifetime of highly effective birth control. The over the counter morning-after pill, Plan B (levonorgestrel), costs $45 and is about 85% effective. Because the majority of women undergoing abortion are low income and a large number have no health insurance, birth control costs are a major contribution to the number of abortions performed in the U.S. The sad reality is that even the most expensive form of birth control is less expensive than the average $8,800 cost to deliver a baby, and that does not even include the indirect cost of maternity leave and raising the child if not put up for adoption.
Even when men and women have health insurance or can afford to buy contraception out of pocket, there are numerous cultural barriers to using contraception. For example, the Catholic Church forbids its members to use any form of contraception and considers contraception to be a sin. The underuse of contraception is perhaps the reason why Catholics have disproportionately more abortions than women of other religions – 24% of women who undergo abortion are Catholic whereas only 21% of the American population is Catholic. Parenthetically, it is notable that 7 of the 9 current Supreme Court Justices are Catholic or were raised Catholic; all 6 of the justices voting to overturn Roe v. Wade are Catholic. Old-Order Amish communities also forbid contraception. Most other religions permit the use of contraception but usually only within the context of marriage.
At the fifth why, we find lack of education. In most states, sex education curricula decisions are left to local school boards. Consequently, there is enormous variation in what is taught in different school districts. Children in many religious-based schools get no education about contraception and children who are home-schooled may get no formal sex education at all. The Centers for Disease Control recommends that children be taught a minimum of 20 sex education topics but fewer than half of American high schools teach all 20 of these. The Guttmacher Institute reports that U.S. adolescents in 2019 received less sex education than in 1995. In short, our educational system, both public and private has failed in sex education and this failure is an important contribution to the number of abortions in the U.S.
So, how do we reduce the number of U.S. abortions?
First, we will never eliminate all abortions nor should abortions be illegal. As a medical student, I assisted in the delivery room with a 12-year-old who was delivering a baby… no 12-year-old should ever have to deliver a baby. Forcing a child, a rape victim, or an incest victim to carry and deliver a baby is truly punishing the victim. In addition to these situations, there will always be unplanned sexual encounters and contraception method failures.
Infrequently entered into the discussion is that in the half century since Roe v. Wade was decided, there have been enormous advances in neonatology that have saved the lives of thousands of children who would have previously died in infancy. However, these same advances have also allowed medical science to keep on life support those with severe fetal deformities and chromosomal abnormalities with no reasonable chance of ever having normal cognitive development or independent function. Fifty years ago, in the pre-Roe era, they would have died within minutes or hours of delivery. These fetal abnormalities can largely be detected by a combination of ultrasound and maternal serum screening tests, neither of which existed in the pre-Roe era. Currently, serious fetal abnormalities account for up to 3% of all abortions. With no access to abortion, these fetuses will now be born and can live for weeks, months, and sometimes even years requiring ventilators, feeding tubes, and 24-hour care. The CDC reported that the annual inpatient hospitalization costs of severe birth defects was $22.9 billion in 2013. That number will be considerably higher when these fetuses can no longer be legally aborted.
In all of these situations, an unwanted pregnancy puts unwanted health and financial demands on the woman. It also places her at a competitive disadvantage in the workplace that can result in gender income disparities and barriers to professional advancement. Adoption is often offered as the solution to unwanted pregnancies but the reality is that most women do not put the child of an unintended pregnancy up for adoption. There are approximately 2.8 million unintended pregnancies in the U.S. every year. The National Council for Adoption reports that in 2020, there were 55,659 public adoptions in the U.S. The USDA estimates that the cost to raise a child to age 18 is $284,000 and this does not include the indirect cost of career development impediment faced by the (often single) mother raising that child. It may take 2 people to create a pregnancy but it is the woman who pays most of these costs, not the man. Simply making abortions illegal does nothing to address this and in fact, makes it considerably worse.
We can (and should) reduce the number of abortions in the United States. If she didn’t have to have an abortion, no woman would want to have an abortion – it’s not like it is a fun experience. No woman says “What should I do to have fun this weekend? Maybe go to a concert, or go see a movie, or maybe get an abortion?” America’s abortion problem is an unwanted pregnancy problem. The most effective way to reduce the number of abortions is to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies and for that, we need to turn back to the five Whys and the following conclusions:
- We cannot rely on the fantasy of abstinence and chastity. $3.2 billion in child sex lawsuit settlements says that this didn’t work for a lot of Catholic priests so why should it work for everyone else?
- We need to improve and standardize sex education and contraception education in our private schools, public schools, and home schools.
- Birth control (including vasectomy) should be free for all Americans – 135 women could have an IUD for a year for the same taxpayer cost of one woman on Medicaid delivering an unwanted pregnancy.
- We cannot base laws and social expectations founded on unrealistic religious doctrines that defy the most basic elements of human nature.
What do the 5 Whys tell us about the hidden costs of abortion bans?
On the day that the current Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion became completely illegal or illegal after 6-weeks gestation in many states and undoubtedly will become illegal in more states in the months to come. There are hidden costs to everything and by looking at the 5 Whys of abortion, we must be prepared to pay for the hidden costs of abortion bans:
- Localities with laws making abortion illegal must also have counterbalancing laws mandating paid maternity leave, government-paid maternal healthcare, and government-paid childcare. Anything less is state-sponsored victimization of women.
- Localities with laws making abortion illegal must also have laws providing for the post-delivery healthcare costs of fetuses that have severe fetal deformities and chromosomal abnormalities.
- Localities with laws making abortion illegal after 6 weeks of gestation must also have laws providing unlimited free pregnancy testing so that pregnancy can realistically be identified before 6 weeks.
- Localities with laws making abortion illegal must be prepared for an increase in infant mortality and should begin investment in programs to reduce infant mortality.
I’m like most Americans
Being retired gives me a freedom that I never had when I was a practicing physician. I no longer have to withhold my opinions about controversial issues for fear of offending my patients who hold different viewpoints or fear of incurring the wrath of deans, department chairs, and hospital CEOs. I can now freely say what I believe.
Abortion is subject to basic economic supply and demand principles like most everything else in life. Making abortion illegal only addresses the supply side and does nothing for the demand side. Focusing only on supply was ineffective with Prohibition in the 1920’s and has been ineffective with marijuana laws today. Economics tells us that reducing supply of a product or service without reducing demand will only increase the price of that product or service – reducing supply alone does not eliminate demand.
When it comes to abortion, I believe it should be legal. But I also believe that we do too many abortions. In short, I’m like most Americans.
The way to reduce demand for abortions is to reduce unwanted pregnancies. By doing a root cause analysis of abortion in the United States using the 5 Whys, we can identify how to reduce the number of abortions by reducing unwanted pregnancies. The 5 Whys also uncover the unintended consequences and hidden costs of abortion bans. Our societal goal should be to make abortions fewer and not to make abortions felonies.
July 2, 2022