The annual residency match is an event like nothing else in the United States. Each year, 4th year medical students spend the fall and winter applying to and interviewing with residency programs. In February, they submit their ranked list of the programs that they would like to attend next year to the National Resident Matching Program. Simultaneously, all of the residency programs submit their ranked list of the medical students they would like to hire next year. The National Resident Matching Program then pairs the medical students with the residency programs using an algorithm that assigns the students to residency programs by matching the two rank lists. Although it sounds a bit impersonal, it actually is the fairest way to ensure that students get into the residency programs that they want while simultaneously ensuring that the residency programs get the students that they want.
The results of the match were released on Match Day, March 19th, and all across the country, 4th year medical students found out which hospital in which city they will be spending the next 3-5 years at starting in late June. If you drill into the Advance Data Table from this year’s match results, there are some interesting take-away points.
Some specialties are more competitive than others
There are 4 groups of students applying to residency: MD students, DO students, U.S. students attending foreign medical schools, and foreign students attending foreign medical schools. The most competitive specialties are those that fill most of their positions with U.S. medical graduates, and in particular, those graduating with MD degrees.
From this graph, it is apparent that surgical subspecialties are the most competitive residencies. Thoracic surgery, plastic surgery, otolaryngology, and neurosurgery all filled greater than 85% of their available positions with graduates from U.S. medical schools (MD). On the other hand, specialties that filled fewer than 50% of their positions with graduates from U.S. medical schools included radiation oncology, internal medicine, family medicine, and pathology.
The number of osteopathic graduates is growing
The number of applicants from U.S. allopathic (MD) medical schools has been rising slowly over the past 5 years. Combining the number of 4th year medical students applying for residency plus the number of applicants applying who previously graduated from allopathic medical schools, the total number has increased from 18,639 in 2017 to 21,538 in 2021, a 16% increase over 5 years. However, the number of applicants from U.S. osteopathic (DO) schools has increased from 3,590 to 7,710 over the same 5-year period, a 115% increase. Applicants from U.S. medical schools (MD) still have the best chance of getting into a residency with 92.8% of senior MD medical students matching. Seniors from osteopathic (DO) schools were a close second with 89.1% matching. U.S. citizens attending foreign medical schools fair less well with only 59.5% matching into a residency program. Foreign citizens attending foreign medical schools continued to be the least successful in getting a residency with only 54.8% matching. Over the past 5 years, despite the significant increase in numbers of senior students from osteopathic schools applying to residency, osteopathic students have been also been increasingly successful in obtaining residency with their match rate increasing from 85% in 2017 to 89.1% in 2021.
Competitive residencies require lots of ranks
In order to get into a residency program, a 4th year medical student must first apply to that program, then get accepted to interview at that program, then travel to the city where that residency is located to interview, then list that residency program on student’s rank list. In order to increase the chances of getting into a residency somewhere, you need to interview at and then rank several programs. In the past, that meant a lot of expensive travel across the country and a lot of time away from medical school to do those on-site interviews. This year, interviewing became a bit easier and less expensive since COVID-19 resulted in all interviews being done virtually, by video. Overall, the average senior student at an allopathic (MD) medical school ranked 9.4 residency programs. However, that number varied considerably. Not surprisingly, the average number of programs ranked per student correlated with how competitive the specialty is.Vascular surgery led with 20.5 programs ranked per applicant, followed by neurosurgery with 18.2, thoracic surgery with 18.1, and otolaryngology with 15.3. At the other end of the spectrum, students applying to pathology residencies ranked the fewest residency programs per student at 4.4, followed by family medicine at 4.9, and internal medicine at 5.7.
More students go into internal medicine
As in the past, the largest number of positions available is in internal medicine. Medical subspecialties such as cardiology, gastroenterology, pulmonary, and oncology first require an internal medicine residency so many of the students applying to internal medicine have long-term aspirations of subspecializing. Nonetheless, there are twice as many residency positions available for internal medicine (3,523) than are available for the next closest specialty, emergency medicine (1,765). Not included in these numbers are students seeking a preliminary or transitional year of internal medicine which is a pre-requisite before specialties such as neurology, dermatology, and ophthalmology. Of note, ophthalmology is unique in that the ophthalmology match occurs earlier in the year and does not participate in the regular residency match.
Your future doctor is less likely to be an MD
In the past, most U.S. physicians were graduates of U.S. allopathic medical schools and had an “M.D.” after their name. That is changing and with the current trends, this may be the last year that U.S. MD graduates comprise the majority of future physicians.
For the past 5 years, the number of available residency positions in the United States has been increasing. In 2017, there were 27,688 residency positions and this grew to 33,353 in 2021. Although the absolute numbers of applicants from each of the four types of students applying to residency has increased, the numbers of students from osteopathic schools, U.S. students attending foreign medical schools, and foreign students attending foreign medical schools has increased faster than the number of students from U.S. medical schools (MD). As a result, the percentage of students matching to residency from U.S. medical schools has fallen from 65.6% in 2017 to 50.7% in 2021. At this rate, the percentage will likely be < 50% next year. A total of 31% of students who matched this year trained at a foreign medical school, either as a U.S. citizen abroad or as a foreign citizen. That is up from 24% in 2017 and at this rate, in the near future, more U.S. physicians will have trained at a foreign medical school than at a U.S. medical school.
What happens to the students who don’t match?
Unmatched applicants included 1,431 U.S. medical school seniors, 866 U.S. medical school previous graduates, 774 osteopathic seniors, 339, osteopathic previous graduates, 2,143 U.S. citizens attending foreign medical schools, and 3,587 foreign citizens attending foreign medical schools. Combined, this is a total of 9,140 students who did not get into a residency. This is a mixed bag of students. Some will land a residency position in the “scramble” when unmatched students call program directors of residency programs that did not fill in hopes of getting a residency position after the match. Some will take a year or two off to get an MBA or other masters degree. Some will decide not to pursue medicine altogether and switch to another career. Some will take a year off to do research or work in another field and then try again next year.
Those unmatched students who apply to the match a second time face lower chances of obtaining a residency position. Of senior medical students applying to residency for the first time, 92.8% matched; however, of graduates of medical schools applying later, only 48.2% matched. The same trend exists for osteopathic students: 89.1% of senior students applying for the first time matched but only 44.3% of graduates applying later matched.
The results of the National Resident Matching Program tell us a lot about which specialties are hot and which specialties are not. But by looking more closely at the results, we can also forecast who our doctors are going to be in the future.
March 23, 2021